特朗普的贸易逆差论背后：严重的事实偏差_纽约时报中文网_VOA英语网
特朗普的贸易逆差论背后：严重的事实偏差
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In the world according to President Trump, trade deficits are among the clearest indication that Americans have become habitual chumps in the global marketplace. The United States sells fewer goods and services than it buys from the rest of the planet, and this is supposedly evidence that Americans are getting rolled.
在特朗普总统的世界里，贸易赤字是证明美国人已经习惯了在全球市场上犯傻的最明显的证据之一。美国售出的商品和服务比从世界其他国家购买的商品和服务要少，这表明美国人正在遭到打劫。
This is the central assumption behind Mr. Trump&s repeated vow to take a meat cleaver to the North American Free Trade Agreement, redrawing the terms of commerce with Mexico. This is the spirit in which he has promised to confront China over its systematic job-killing machine, beginning later this week as he greets the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.
特朗普反复发誓，要把北美自由贸易协定(North American Free Trade Agreement)大卸八块，重新制定与墨西哥的贸易条款，其背后的核心假定正是这种观点。他承诺挑战中国那种令美国工作机会减少的系统性机制。这种思维，就从本周晚些时候在佛罗里达州马阿拉歌庄园会见中国国家主席习近平开始。
But Mr. Trump&s portrayal of trade deficits entails crucial departures from economic reality.
但是特朗普对贸易赤字的描述却极大地背离了经济现实。
In his accounting, international trade is a zero-sum affair, as if every country were jockeying for a share of forever limited amounts of business. An auto part made in Mexico and later included in a finished vehicle destined for a suburban driveway in California represents jobs hijacked from the Midwestern factory that should have employed American hands to build everything.
在他的盘算中，国际贸易是一种零和博弈，好像每一个国家都在不择手段，谋求一个永远有限的业务份额。墨西哥制造的汽车零部件，之后会被装进停在加利福尼亚州郊区房前车道上的成品车，这代表着从美国中西部工厂抢走了工作机会，这些工厂应该雇佣美国人手来制造一切。
Trade is not zero-sum. Expanded trade has historically tended to support economic growth, which generates more spoils to be divvied up for all.
贸易不是零和博弈。历史上，贸易扩张往往会带来经济增长，产生更多收益，供所有人分享。
American factories have increased production over the years, in part by drawing on a global supply chain to get what they need. A construction machinery plant in Illinois may buy ball bearings from China, glass displays from South Korea, computer chips from Malaysia and other parts from Mexico, some of them forged with American-made steel.
美国工厂的产量多年来一直在增加，部分原因是它们利用全球供应链来获得自己的所需。伊利诺斯州的一家建筑机械厂可能会购买中国的球轴承，韩国的玻璃陈列柜，马来西亚的电脑芯片和墨西哥的其他零件，其中一些是采用美国生产的钢铁制造的。
Obsessing over the balance of trade with any single country misses all of that. It also distracts from the force that, by many accounts, is the real threat to employment: automation. The decisive problem facing American workers is that making more products has not translated into sufficient numbers of new jobs, leaving millions of people searching for full-time work at wages high enough to pay the bills.
执着于同任何一个国家保持贸易平衡，就会失去所有这一切。这样做也会分散对自动化问题的关注，从许多方面来说，自动化才是对就业的真正威胁。美国工人面临的关键问题是，制造更多的产品，并没有转化为足够的新工作岗位，导致数百万人仍在寻找工资高到足以支付账单的全职工作。
Economists generally dismiss bilateral trade deficits as essentially meaningless, for reasons easily recognizable in the rest of everyday life. Most people surely run lopsided trade deficits with their dentists, handing these professionals their dollars without expecting them to purchase anything in return.
经济学家普遍认为，双边贸易赤字实质上是没有意义的，其原因在日常生活中就可以轻易看到。大多数人对他们的牙医负有极大的贸易赤字，人们要向这些专业人士付钱，而不指望这些专业人士从自己手中购买任何东西。
One may assume that successful dentists will distribute their profits throughout the economy & on marketing, accounting, laundry and streaming music services. One way or another, these dollars generate jobs and income for other people. So it is with countries.
人们可以假设成功的牙科医生会在整个经济中分配他们所得的利润&&通过市场营销、会计、洗衣和流媒体音乐服务。以这样或那样的方式，这些钱会为其他人创造就业机会和收入。对于国家来说也是一样。
China&s trade surplus with the United States, which reached $347 billion last year, does in part reflect dubious Chinese practices, including lavishing state credit on favored exporters and flooding world markets with low-cost goods to keep its laborers employed.
去年，中国与美国的贸易顺差达到了3470亿美元，一定程度上的确反映了中国的一些争议性做法，包括对出口商提供慷慨的国家贷款，以低成本的货物淹没世界市场，以便保持劳动者的就业。
Yet even if China were a paragon of fair trading practices, it would almost certainly run a surplus with the United States. Despite tremendous economic advances, China remains a relatively low-income country, home to hundreds of millions of people who cannot afford the more sophisticated fruits of the American economy. Though wages have risen in recent years, China&s fundamental advantage still involves making goods cheaply.
然而，即使中国是公平贸易的典范，它几乎也肯定会对美国保持顺差。尽管取得巨大的经济进步，中国仍然是一个相对的低收入国家，它有数亿人口无力负担美国经济产出的那些更高端的产品。虽然近年来工资有所上涨，但中国的根本优势还是在于让货物更为廉价。
Trade imbalances with the world are a more complex matter, one that is subject to genuine debate among economists. But the story is different for every country, depending on its size, the maturity of its economy, the sorts of goods and services it tends to export, and the reason for the imbalance in trade at any moment in time.
与整个世界的贸易不平衡是一个更为复杂的问题，经济学家在就这个主题展开真正的辩论。但是，每个国家的情况都是不一样的，这取决于国家的规模，经济的成熟度，出口商品和服务的种类，以及任何时候贸易不平衡的各种原因。
In the case of the United States, trade deficits with the world have been a feature of economic life for more than three decades, a sweep of time that has seen economic booms, the worst downturn since the Great Depression and plenty of events in between.
就美国而言，世界范围内的贸易赤字已经是30多年来经济生活的一个特征，这期间有过数次经济繁荣，也有过大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退，以及介于两者之间的种种事件。
&Trade deficits aren&t a good barometer,& said Chad P. Bown, a trade expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
&贸易逆差不是一个好指标，&华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的贸易政策专家查德&P&鲍恩(Chad P.?Bown)说。
Fluctuations reflect a host of factors that have little to do with the fairness of trade terms. As the government on Tuesday reported that the American trade deficit contracted by nearly 10 percent in February, analysts noted that exports from the United States had been aided by a recent weakening in the value of the dollar, which makes American goods cheaper on world markets.
波动反映出许多因素与贸易条款的公平性几乎没什么关系。在政府于周二通报美国的贸易顺差在今年2月缩小了近10%之时，分析人士指出，美国出口增加是得益于最近的美元贬值，这令美国的商品在全球市场上变得更便宜。
The only thing one can say with certainty is that the deficit reflects how Americans have consumed more than they have been willing to save, purchasing from foreigners who have in turn invested in the United States. To the degree that this is a problem & and opinions vary & most economists suggest that it is best addressed with tax policies and incentives to save, rather than by impeding trade.
唯一可以确定的是，贸易逆差反映出美国人的消费意愿大于存储意愿，他们从外国人那里购买商品，而后者又反过来在美国进行投资。就算这是个问题&&对此大家观点不一&&大多数经济学家也建议，解决它的最佳办法是调整税收政策和刺激储蓄，而非阻碍贸易。
The American trade deficit with the world contracted sharply in 2008 and 2009, but this was not the result of a sudden resumption of old-school saving. It reflected a cratering of consumer spending in the midst of the Great Recession. Calling that progress would be like applauding a nation gripped by famine for limiting its intake of saturated fats.
美国与世界各国的贸易逆差曾在2008年和2009年大幅缩小，但这不是老派的储蓄习惯突然恢复的结果。它背后反映的是大衰退(Great Recession)之下消费支出的减少。称它为进步，就好像称赞一个陷入饥荒的国家限制饱和脂肪的摄入量。
But if trade deficits do not lend themselves to certain conclusions in the realm of economic policy, they have served as highly useful political fodder. Politicians use trade deficits & money departing the nation! & as a handy, if flawed, explanation for why paychecks are inadequate.
但如果贸易逆差在经济政策领域无法达成某种结论，它们就会变成十分有用的政治素材。政客们会把贸易逆差&&资金在从这个国家流失！&&当作方便的借口，解释为何大家的工资不够花，尽管这种说法并不完全准确。
Back in the 1980s, it was Japan that played the boogeyman in the American political conversation, the goliath believed to be gobbling up American prosperity with every Sony Walkman it sent toward American shores. More recently, China has assumed that role.
回想上世纪80年代，是日本在扮演美国政治谈话中的假想怪物，认为它是通过送往美国的每台索尼随身听吞噬美国繁荣的巨人。最近，这个角色落到了中国的头上。
Now, with Mr. Trump in the White House, much of human civilization has seemingly been cast as the predator class & Germany, Mexico, China, willfully fleecing Americans through a series of trade deals extended by a Washington elite too clueless to fight them.
现在随着特朗普入主白宫，整个人类文明的一大部分似乎都被塑造成通过一系列贸易协议蓄意薅美国羊毛的掠夺者&&德国、墨西哥、中国&&这些协议则是由太过愚蠢而没能反抗这种剥削的华盛顿精英所推进。
Liberalized trade has proved punishing for lower-skilled factory laborers clustered in the American South and Midwest. Entire industrial communities have been upended by joblessness, mass foreclosure and attendant ills like substance abuse, domestic violence and depression.
事实已经证明，自由化的贸易会给集中在美国南部和中西部的技术水平较低的工厂工人带来沉重打击。整个工业界都被失业、抵押品赎回权大规模丧失，以及随之而来的药物滥用、家庭暴力和抑郁症等问题搅得天翻地覆。
But trade has proved a boon to bankers, executives and multinational corporations that harness low-wage labor in distant lands to make their products. Much of Walmart&s business model was built on a reliance on Chinese factories. American consumers have grown accustomed to low prices for clothing, shoes and other goods.
但贸易已被证明对银行高级职员、高管和跨国企业十分有益，他们利用遥远土地上的低薪劳动力来为自己制造产品。沃尔玛的商业模式在很大程度上就建基于对中国工厂的依赖。美国消费者已经习惯于用不高的价格买到衣物、鞋和其他商品。
None of this action gets captured in narrow obsessions over trade deficits.
在有关贸易逆差的狭隘执念中，所有这些都被忽略了。
&Trump hugely mis-frames it,& said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, who is a persistent critic of trade deals. &We have U.S. companies that are hugely profiting by having access to low-cost labor in China. Portraying that China won and we lost is 180 degrees wrong. Factory laborers are the losers.&
&特朗普极大地扭曲了对它的理解，&华盛顿经济与政策研究中心(Center for Economic and Policy Research)联席主任、贸易协议的持续批判者迪安&贝克(Dean Baker)说。&我们也有美国企业通过使用中国的低成本劳动力获利巨丰。将情况描述成中国赢了、我们输了，完全是错误的。工厂工人才是其中的受害者。&
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中国如何应对特朗普政府
来源：原创 & | & 时间： 16:26:14 & | & 浏览：118
《金融时报》网站12月1日报道，中国政策分析师正夜以继日地研究如何在特朗普当选后，推动中美关系发展。目前，中国政策专家对未来中美关系存在三种看法。
一是不稳定，中国向来在国际政策领域比较保守，特朗普当选令中美关系战略性不可预测性概率大幅增加。
二是乐见其成。美国大选混乱暴露了西方自由民主的弊端，特朗普也摒弃了美国外交政策的遗产，中美有可能就国家安全和经济政策达成一致。此外，美退出TPP更是为中国创造了机遇。
三是消极忧虑。特朗普将中国而非俄罗斯定义为唯一可挑战美国的国家，特朗普扩充军备的努力直指中国。美俄关系缓和将影响中俄战略合作。此外，特朗普在经济贸易领域的保护主义政策将诱发中美贸易和货币战争，这将威胁中国未来经济发展。
中美关系未来究竟何去何从？特朗普的行动将起到决定性作用。两国领导人应尽快举行双边会谈，即使立场都很强硬，但仍可以在相互尊重的基础上开展合作，如就朝核问题开展合作，并藉此重新定义特朗普时期的中美关系。（李江涛）
& 信息来源：《金融时报》网站12月1日报道
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中美经济关系乱如麻，特朗普该怎么办
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The United States and China are locked in a mutually dependent, frequently dysfunctional economic partnership. The world&s biggest and second-biggest economies are like a married couple that complain about each other constantly yet can&t even contemplate a divorce.
美国和中国被一种相互依赖、常常无法正常运转的经济伙伴关系牵绊着。作为世界第一和第二大经济体，它们就像一对不停地抱怨彼此，但甚至无法把离婚纳入考虑范围的夫妻。
The marriage enters a new phase Thursday, as President Xi Jinping of China visits for two days of meetings at the Florida estate of a president who made China a punching bag on the campaign trail.
周四，随着中国国家主席习近平前往美国总统位于佛罗里达的庄园，与这位在竞选期间把中国当成沙袋暴打的总统进行为期两天的会晤，此桩婚姻进入了新阶段。
The question is whether President Trump can turn his bellicose language into concrete gains for American companies and workers. A look at the economics of the relationship between the nations, and conversations with former officials with battle scars from past negotiations, shows a path for getting a better deal.
问题是，特朗普总统能否把他的好战言辞转化为美国公司和工人的切实利益。通过审视两国关系的经济因素，并跟有着丰富的相关谈判经验的前官员交谈，可以发现一个达成更划算交易的途径。
That path to success may not include the kind of flashy, headline-generating announcements that the Trump administration has tended to celebrate.
这个通往成功的途径，或许并不包括特朗普政府倾向于赞颂的那些华而不实、登上新闻头条的宣言。
It&s not about the currency (for now)
它（暂时）和货币无关
In February, Mr. Trump called China the &grand champions at manipulation of currency.& During the campaign, too, he frequently assailed China for artificially reducing the value of the renminbi to favor its companies versus American and other competitors.
今年2月，特朗普把中国称为&操纵货币的大赢家&。竞选期间他也常常攻击中国，说它为了帮助本国公司对付美国以及其他地方的竞争者，人为地让人民币贬值。
It is a view that is outdated. For years, China did intervene in financial markets to depress the value of its currency. But now it is intervening to keep the yuan from falling & actually doing the opposite of what Mr. Trump alleged. Economists generally think that the Chinese currency is close to the levels that would be set by purely market forces.
上述观点已经过时了。在很多年里，中国的确曾干预金融市场，压低本国货币的价值。但现在，它进行干预是为了不让人民币贬值&&其做法其实和特朗普的指控完全相反。经济学家普遍认为，人民币当前的汇率与完全由市场力量决定的汇率水平颇为接近。
That doesn&t mean currencies shouldn&t come up at Mar-a-Lago. This moment of relative peace between the countries on currency policy could be the ideal time to develop an understanding for the future.
这并不是说在马阿拉歌不该提出货币问题。当前，中美两国在货币政策方面处于相对和平的时期，为双方就未来达成谅解提供了大好时机。
&I think currency is still an issue, but it doesn&t make sense to discuss it under the rubric of manipulation,& said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. &China is m it&s just that it&s managing it right now in a way that is relatively advantageous to the United States. That understanding of how China intends to manage its currency in the future remains a top-order issue.&
&我认为货币仍然是一个问题，但以操纵为主题进行讨论没有意义，&外交关系协会(Council on Foreign Relations)资深研究员布拉德&塞策(Brad Setser)说。&中国正在管控货币，但它眼下管控货币的方式相对而言对美国有利。弄清中国打算在未来如何管控本国货币，仍然是重要事项。&
In other words, Mr. Trump could use this moment not to beat China over the head about what happened in the past, or where things stand today, but to develop an agreement on what it will do in the future, if a day comes when market forces start pushing the yuan upward.
换句话说，特朗普可以利用好这一时期，别揪着以前的事情或眼下的问题不放，猛烈抨击中国，而是应该就中国在未来，也就是有朝一日市场力量开始推动人民币升值时会怎么做，与其达成协议。
Focus on the causes of the trade deficit, not the number
聚焦于贸易逆差的原因，而非数字
Mr. Trump has similarly assailed the United States trade deficit with China and other countries, often characterizing it as a scorecard, evidence that China is winning at trade and the United States losing, to the tune of $310 billion a year.
特朗普还抱怨了美国对中国以及其他国家的贸易逆差，他常常将其描绘成一张比分表，说它证明中国是贸易赢家，美国是输家，一年要输给中国3100亿美元。
The reality is more nuanced. The persistent trade deficit is indeed problematic, but that&s because of the factors that drive it and the imbalances they cause to build. Simply targeting a lower trade deficit could well leave both American and Chinese workers worse off, if carried out the wrong way. For example, a trade war that significantly reduces American imports from China while also reducing American exports to China would reduce the trade deficit but would mean lower incomes and fewer jobs in both countries.
而现实更微妙。持续的贸易逆差的确成问题，但造成持续逆差的因素，以及这些因素所制造的不平衡才是根源所在。如果采取错误的方法，简单地着眼于降低贸易逆差，可能会让中美两国工人的处境都变糟。例如，一场贸易战会让美国大幅减少从中国进口商品，同时导致美国对中国的出口额下降，到头来贸易逆差是缩小了，但却会造成中美两国的收入水平变低，工作岗位变少。
The U.S.-China trade imbalance is indeed driven in part by trade barriers that China enacts against American companies, including a 25 percent tariff on imported automobiles and various quotas and restrictions that reduce agricultural imports. If Mr. Trump can persuade China to loosen those restrictions, it might close the trade deficit by increasing American exports & the healthy kind of trade rebalancing.
其实，中美贸易失衡在某种程度上源于中国针对美国公司树立的贸易壁垒，包括对进口汽车征收25%的关税，还有导致农业进口额下降的各种配额和限制性规定。如果特朗普能说服中国放松这些限制，或许就可以通过增加美国的出口来缩小贸易逆差&&这是较为健康的那种贸易再平衡。
But the trade gap isn&t driven just by the details of trade arrangements. It is also driven by the flow of capital between countries. To oversimplify, when a company sells more abroad than it buys, it has to do something with that money.
但造成贸易逆差的不仅仅是贸易安排的细节。起作用的还有国家间的资本流动。简单来说，当一个国家在海外市场上卖得较多、买得较少时，就必须拿那些钱做点什么。
The flip side of a current account deficit, as an economist might put it, is a capital account surplus. China&s trade imbalances are a function not only of its trade practices, but also of its very high levels of savings, which are in turn invested around the world.
与经济学家所谓的经常项目赤字相对应的，是资本项目盈余。导致中国贸易失衡的，不仅是它的贸易实践，还有非常高的储蓄水平&&这些钱又被拿来在世界各地投资。
For China to change that, it would have to change the very structure of its economy: away from savings and big-ticket infrastructure investments, and toward consumer demand & including for products made both domestically and abroad.
中国要改变这种状况，就必须改变自己的经济结构：从储蓄和大手笔基础设施投资，转向消费需求&&包括对产自国内外的产品的需求。
If the Trump administration really wants the trade deficit with China to come down over time, it&s not enough to look at only one side of the international economic ledger & flows of goods & while ignoring the flow of capital.
如果特朗普政府真的希望对中国的贸易赤字有朝一日能降下来，只是着眼于国际经济账簿的一个方面，也就是商品的流动，而忽略资本的流动，是不行的。
In practice, this would mean making demands on some issues that might seem like purely domestic concerns only tangentially related to trade. That might include pushing China to allow more troubled state-owned enterprises to fail, so that their accumulated profits might be spread through the Chinese economy instead of funneled toward the purchase of foreign assets. A more generous pension system might spur demand among older Chinese citizens.
在实践中，这意味着要就某些问题提出要求，这些问题看上去好像是纯粹的内部事务，和国际贸易只有很小的关联。其中或许包括推动中国允许更多陷入困境的国有企业倒掉，这样一来它们积累的利润或许就会散落于中国经济之中，而不是被用于收购海外资产。一个更为慷慨的退休金制度或许可以激发中国老年人的消费需求。
If China allowed global financial companies more access to its market, it could both encourage more domestic spending and give a major American industry an opportunity it has long sought.
如果中国允许全球性金融公司更容易地进入本国市场，那它不仅可以推动国内支出的增加，还能让美国的一个主要产业获得其一直梦寐以求的机会。
Use leverage carefully
小心地使用筹码
President Trump prides himself on being a dealmaker, and his negotiating style is to lay out extreme requests in order to work back to agreement. But resetting economic relations with China will prove trickier than any real estate deal.
特朗普总统以善于达成交易为傲，他的谈判风格是，漫天要价，然后做出让步，以达成协议。但事实会证明，重塑与中国的经济关系比任何房地产交易都要棘手。
One of the fundamental realities of the relationship is that while neither side is wholly comfortable with how it works, these are big, powerful countries that can&t be easily swayed by what a country on the other side of the Pacific Ocean wants to happen. The leverage that each side has to deploy is limited & at least so long as neither country is willing to shoot itself in the foot.
中美经济关系的一个基本现实是，尽管这种关系没能让它们中的任何一方完全满意，但它们都是有影响力的大国，谁也不会因为太平洋另一侧的一个国家想要怎样而轻易受影响。双方手上的筹码是有限的&&至少在谁都不愿意搬起石头砸自己的脚的情况下是如此。
So, for example, in trying to get more favorable Chinese treatment of American goods and services, the standard menu of carrots Mr. Trump has to offer for compliance is relatively modest. China wants things like United States membership in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank that it started, and support for its &One Belt, One Road& program to build better transportation infrastructure stretching from Southeast Asia to Europe.
因此，举个例子，在向中国为美国产品和服务争取更优惠待遇的过程中，特朗普手中用于交换的标准的好处清单相对较短。中国想要的是，美国加入中国牵头创办的亚洲基础设施投资银行，支持旨在修建从东南亚一直延伸到欧洲的更好基础设施的&一带一路&计划，等等。
Bigger Chinese goals, like achieving &market economy& status in the World Trade Organization, are likely to be nonstarters unless the country makes major progress on allowing international companies better access to its market.
至于中国的一些更大的目标，比如获得世贸组织框架下的&市场经济&地位，则不太可能达成，除非中国在允许国际性企业更容易地进入本国市场方面有重大进展。
The United States could conceivably have more negotiating leverage by threatening punitive tariffs or other aggressive measures, as Mr. Trump did during his campaign, but those actions are just as likely to produce a painful blowback from China that damages the United States.
想象得到，美国通过扬言征收惩罚性关税或采取其他激进措施&&就像特朗普在竞选期间所做的那样&&可以拥有更多谈判筹码。但这些举措同样可能招致中国奋起反击，进而损害美国的利益。
Then there are noneconomic issues, which invariably could shape the contours of economic relationships.
此外，还存在肯定会影响经济关系的那些非经济因素。
&In the Obama administration, China was a good citizen cooperating with us on Iran sanctions and on climate change, which I think made it hard for the U.S. to contemplate anything that harsh in the trade arena,& said David Dollar, a former Treasury Department official in Beijing and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. &You could have something similar if the Trump administration wants China to cooperate more on North Korea. That could be hard to turn around and be harsh on them in the economic realm.&
&奥巴马政府执政期间，中国是一个不错的伙伴，曾就制裁伊朗、气候变化问题与我们合作，我想这让当时的美国很难去考虑在贸易领域采取任何严厉的举措，&曾是美国财政部驻华特使、现为布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)资深研究员的杜大伟(David Dollar)说。&如果特朗普政府想让中国在朝鲜问题上更合作，也会面临类似的情况。很难掉过头来在经济领域为难他们。&
Be patient, and don&t get distracted by baubles
耐心一点，别被花哨的小玩意分了心
Mr. Trump likes to announce big splashy deals, and given that the Chinese are looking for places to invest their capital in the United States, it would be easy enough to find something along those lines to announce.
特朗普喜欢宣布达成引人注目的大交易的消息。鉴于中国人正在美国寻找投资标的，他很容易就能拿出点什么来宣布一下。
But in the context of the two giant economies, that kind of thing is small bore. This flawed economic relationship has been building for a long time, and the fixes are unlikely to come overnight.
但以两个巨大的经济体为背景，这样的东西显得很琐碎。带有瑕疵的经济关系是用了很长时间才建立起来的，修正工作不可能一蹴而就。
&Mr. Trump ought to pick the right fights rather than focus on issues that resonate with his political base but which are unlikely to help U.S. economic interest in either the short term or long run,& said Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell and author of &Gaining Currency,& a book about China&s role in global finance.
&特朗普应该为正确的目标而战，而不是关注那些能在他的政治大本营里引发共鸣，但不论从短期还是长期来看都对增进美国的经济利益没有帮助的问题，&康奈尔大学(Cornell)经济学家、著有《不断升值的货币》(Gaining Currency)一书的埃斯瓦尔&普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)说。该书讲的是中国在全球金融领域的角色。
It&s unlikely that the first meeting between the new president and the Chinese leader will resolve issues that have been building for years or even decades. Rather, those who have worked in diplomacy advise looking beyond the current headlines to make progress on lowering Chinese trade barriers, increasing its domestic savings and committing not to return to the days of manipulating its currency lower.
新任总统和中国领导人的首次会晤，不大可能让那些在若干年间甚至几十年间累积起来的问题得到解决。一些外交工作者给出的建议是，别把眼光局限于时下的头条新闻，而是应该寻求在如下问题上取得进展：敦促中国降低贸易壁垒，增加国内储蓄，并承诺不会再度人为压低汇率。
When you&re talking about commerce between two superpowers, things don&t change overnight.
我们现在谈论的是两个超级大国之间的商贸往来，事情不会在一夜之间发生改变。
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