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是时候购买大宗商品了吗？
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Commodities investors are missing out on the party.
大宗商品投资者正在错失良机。
Since its recent peak in September 2012, the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index, which includes 20 products such as natural gas, gold and copper, has fallen about 14%.
与2012年9月的近期高位相比，道琼斯瑞银商品指数(Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index)已经回落了约14%。道琼斯瑞银商品指数包含20种大宗商品，如天然气、黄金和铜等。
During the same period, the S&P 500 stock index has taken off, returning close to 20% including dividends. And even amid all the talk of a bond-market crash, a broad-based bond-market exchange-traded fund such as iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market has lost only a few percent, while exchange-traded funds that own riskier bonds, like high-yield ones, have in some cases made money.
在此期间，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)却大幅攀升，包含派息在内的投资回报接近20%。此外，即使有关债券市场崩盘的讨论此起彼伏，但诸多债券市场交易所交易基金(exchange-traded fund, 简称ETF)──比如安硕美国核心总体债券市场ETF(iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market)──却只下跌了几个百分点，甚至有些配置了更高风险债券（比如高收益率债券）的ETF还赚到了钱。
That wasn't how it was supposed to play out. Between 1998 and 2008, prices of many raw materials soared, prompting investors to talk of a commodities 'supercycle,' a long-term boom to be driven by growth in China and other emerging markets.
这与人们期望的情景大相径庭。在1998年至2008年期间，许多原材料价格都实现了大幅上涨，这令消费者不禁高谈阔论起大宗商品的&超级周期&来，中国和其他新兴市场的增长是推动大宗商品本轮长期涨势的原因。
But the financial crisis dealt a huge blow to commodities. Many of them have failed to regain their precrisis highs, leading some analysts to declare the supercycle dead.
但是，金融危机给大宗商品市场带来了沉重的打击。目前，不少大宗商品的价格仍未恢复到危机前的高位，一些分析人士因此断言：超级周期已经终结了。
Some portfolio managers like commodities because their prices don't go up and down in sync with those of stocks and bonds, thus providing a kind of hedge against their movements. But that isn't a fail-safe strategy: In 2008, for example, the DJ-UBS index plummeted 37%, the same amount as an ETF of major U.S. stocks.
一些投资组合经理青睐大宗商品，因为大宗商品的价格不会随着股票和债券的价格上下波动，因此能够为股价和债券价格的波动提供某种对冲。但是，这种策略并不足以抵御风险：例如，2008年，道琼斯瑞银商品指数下跌了37%，与一只投资于美国主要股票的ETF跌幅相当。
Should you be tempted to buy commodities after their recent slump? If you are, there are two ways to gain exposure to raw materials: buying them through a fund, or buying companies that produce them.
在近期大宗商品价格走低后，你是否有意尝试这方面的投资呢？如果你有这样的打算，有两种办法可以让你进行对原材料的投资：通过基金购买大宗商品，或投资于生产大宗商品的公司。
Direct investments in commodities and commodity funds have two major drawbacks, say some analysts. First, they don't produce any income, meaning those who put their money in commodity assets are betting entirely on price appreciation. But commodity prices over the long haul tend to march in lockstep with inflation.
一些分析人士指出，对大宗商品和大宗商品基金的直接投资有两个主要弊端。首先，它们本身不能创造任何收益，这意味着那些把钱投在大宗商品类资产上的投资者完全是在押注其价格的上涨。但是，长期来看，大宗商品价格倾向于保持与通货膨胀率相同的增速。
'There's no growth in commodities. So what's the point of doing this?' says Rick Ferri of Troy, Mich.-based investment manager Portfolio Solutions, which doesn't include commodities in clients' portfolios.
总部位于美国密歇根州特洛伊市(Troy)的投资组合解决方案公司(Portfolio Solutions) 的瑞克·费利(Rick Ferri)表示：&大宗商品不能创造收益。所以投资大宗商品意义何在？&投资组合解决方案公司没有将大宗商品纳入客户的投资组合。
And even if commodities were a good long-term diversifier, it is difficult to separate the change in commodity prices─which investors want exposure to─from all of the costs and trading pitfalls inherent in the funds that own them.
即使大宗商品是一个不错的多元化长期投资工具，我们也很难将投资者期望看到的大宗商品价格变化与持有大宗商品的基金固有的成本及交易陷阱区分开来。
Few commodity mutual funds, exchange-traded notes or other exchange-traded products actually own the soybeans, oil or metals they track. Instead, they typically own contracts that give them the right to buy commodities at a set time in the future.
实际上，大宗商品共同基金、交易所交易债券(exchange-traded note, 简称ETN)和其他类型的交易所交易产品几乎都不真正持有各自所追踪的大豆、原油和金属。相反，它们通常持有的是赋予它们在未来的某个特定时间购买大宗商品的权利的期权合约。
On July 31, for example, the United States Oil Fund, which charges 0.74%, or $74 per $10,000 invested, owned contracts giving it the right to buy West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude oil in September. When September gets closer, the fund will replace those contracts with new ones giving it the right to buy oil in October.
例如，在7月31日，美国石油基金(United States Oil Fund)持有9月份交割的美国西得克萨斯轻质原油期货合约。随着9月逐渐临近，该石油基金将用10月份交割的原油期货合约替换之前的期货合约。美国石油基金收取的费率为0.74%，即每10,000美元收取74美元。
Sometimes, that continued process of 'rolling' one month's contract into the next adds to returns, but the process can also take away from them.
有些时候，这种逐月持续更迭期货合约的做法能够带来收益，但是这也可能会带来损失。
Indexes also can look quite different from one another, which means their returns won't be similar. This year, the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return ETN has lost 11%, according to investment researcher Morningstar . The PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund, which follows a different index, has lost only 6.7%.
另外，追踪大宗商品的不同指数也表现各异，这意味着以它们为基准指数的产品的回报也会因此千差万别。投资研究机构晨星(Morningstar)的数据显示，今年，iPath道琼斯瑞银商品指数总收益ETN(iPath Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return ETN)亏损了11%。而以另一个指数为基准的德意志银行商品指数跟踪基金(PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund)仅亏损了6.7%。
Finally, even the cheapest exchange-traded products that track commodities are relatively expensive. The iPath ETN, for example, charges 0.75%, or $75 per $10,000 invested. The PowerShares fund has an expense ratio of 0.93%. Stock and bond index ETFs, on the other hand, can cost as little as 0.05%.
最后，即使成本最低廉的大宗商品交易所交易产品相对来讲也都很昂贵。例如，iPath道琼斯瑞银商品指数总收益ETN收取的费率为0.75%，即每10,000美元收取75美元。德意志银行商品指数跟踪基金收取的费率为0.93%。另一方面，股票和债券指数ETF的费率却可低至0.05%。
With that in mind, some investors stay away from owning physical commodities or futures contracts and instead buy shares of the companies that mine or harvest them.
有鉴于此，一些投资者从不购买实物大宗商品或大宗商品期权，而是购买生产大宗商品的公司股票。
Those who own an S&P 500 mutual fund already have about 14% of their portfolio in basic materials and energy companies, according to investment researcher Morningstar.
晨星的数据显示，那些持有以标准普尔500指数为基准指数的共同基金的投资者们已经将其投资组合的约14%投资到了基础材料和能源公司上。
Some researchers argue that commodities still deserve a permanent place in investors' portfolios, but only a small slice. Duke University finance professor Campbell Harvey, who has researched commodities' role in a portfolio, recommends 5% to 15%.
一些研究人士表示，大宗商品仍然值得投资者长期投资，但是这类投资应该控制在较低的比例。杜克大学(Duke University)金融学教授坎贝尔·哈维(Campbell Harvey)建议，大宗商品所占的投资比例应该在5%至15%之间。哈维对大宗商品在投资组合中的角色进行过系统研究。
As a long-term holding, a diversified ETF such as the Powershares DB Commodity ETF─which holds products such as oil, natural gas and gold─should work just fine.
作为长期的投资对象，跟踪原油、天然气和黄金等大宗商品的德意志银行商品指数跟踪基金等多元化ETF应该是不错的投资种类。
But for investors who want to play individual commodities tactically, here is a breakdown of where precious and industrial metals, agricultural products and oil stand now and the best opportunities in each:
而对于那些希望策略性地投资于单一种类大宗商品的投资者，下文将分别就农产品、原油、贵金属和工业金属的投资形势和投资机会进行分析：
Agriculture
Farm commodities, from sugar to soybeans, have been in a rough patch lately.
近来，从糖到大豆在内的农产品一直都表现不佳。
Corn futures, for example, ended Friday at $4.76 a bushel, the lowest point since October 2010. Coffee futures are trading near four-year lows, while soybean prices are down 15% from their peak in mid-July.
例如，8月2日玉米期货收于每蒲式耳4.76美元，为2010年10月以来的最低水平。咖啡期货则在四年低点附近徘徊，大豆价格较7月中旬的高位已经回落15%。
That is a sharp reversal from the past few years. After farm commodity prices hit multiyear highs in 2011 and 2012, farmers world-wide increased plantings and revved up spending. Now, with farmers harvesting bumper crops, prices are well below their recent highs.
这和过去几年的情景迥然有异。继农产品价格在2011年和2012年创下数年高位以来，全球农民都扩大了种植面积并增加了支出。现在，随着农民的丰收，农产品价格已远低于近期高位。
Some investors argue that prices already are due for a rebound. Global population growth has created a built-in driver for prices of staple foods like corn, wheat and soybeans. While slowing growth in emerging markets, particularly in China, has weighed on prices of commodities like copper, the appetite for food commodities is expected to continue to rise.
一些投资者表示，农产品价格即将反弹。全球人口增长已经给玉米、小麦和大豆等主食的价格带来了必然的上涨动力。虽然新兴市场，特别是中国增速的放缓已经拖累了铜等大宗商品的价格，但是预计投资者对粮食类大宗商品的热情将继续升温。
'I still believe there will be a lot of Chinese migrating to the cities and demand for food will be relatively strong,' says Michael McDougall, a senior vice president of brokerage Newedge.
经纪公司Newedge的高级副总裁迈克尔·麦克杜格尔(Michael McDougall)表示：&我仍然认为，大批的中国人将迁居至城市，中国对食品的需求将相对强劲。&
Sterling Smith, a futures specialist at Citigroup in Chicago, points to cotton as a potential buy, through a futures broker or exchange-traded product such as iPath Pure Beta Cotton. Farmers are planting fewer acres and available global stocks are down.
花旗集团(Citigroup)驻芝加哥的期货专家斯特林·史密斯(Sterling Smith)认为，棉花是潜在的投资对象，对棉花的投资可以通过期货经纪人或iPath Pure Beta Cotton等交易所交易产品来实现。如今棉花种植量正在减少，全球可用库存正在下降。
But even here, there are risks. China, which has stockpiled 58% of the world's cotton, could release some of its inventories, causing prices to plummet.
但是，即便如此，投资棉花也存在风险。中国的棉花储备占全球的58%，一旦中国释放出部分国储棉，棉花价格就会应声下跌。
Another way to invest in the agriculture sector would be by buying companies that produce and sell commodities, says Adam Sarhan, chief executive of New York-based investment firm Sarhan Capital.
亚当·萨尔汗(Adam Sarhan)是纽约投资公司萨尔汗资本(Sarhan Capital)的首席执行长，他表示，另一个投资农业板块的方式就是购买种植和销售农产品的公司的股票。
Global agribusiness and food producer Bunge, based in St. Louis, is involved broadly in commodities like sugar, corn, wheat and oilseeds. Mr. Sarhan likes Bunge because the company has a positive cash flow and pays a dividend, a plus for longer-term investors. The stock, which has risen 5.5% so far this year, has a price/earnings ratio of 11.4, based on expected 2013 earnings, compared with a 15.5 P/E for the rest of the market.
总部位于美国圣路易斯的全球农业综合企业及食品制造商邦吉(Bunge)广泛地参与着农产品生产与交易，其业务范围涵盖糖、玉米、小麦和油籽等。萨尔汗青睐邦吉的原因是，这家公司的现金流充裕，且该公司支付股票股息，这对长期投资者来讲都颇具吸引力。今年迄今，邦吉的股票已经上涨了5.5%，以2013年的预期每股收益计算，该公司股价的市盈率为11.4，低于15.5的市场整体市盈率。
This year, U.S. crude oil has risen 18%, making it one of the few bright spots for commodities investors. Unlike other commodities, which are vulnerable to China's economic slowdown, oil prices are heavily driven by rising U.S. consumption.
今年，美国的原油价格已经上涨了18%，对于大宗商品投资者来讲，原油是为数不多的投资亮点之一。和其他大宗商品不同，原油价格最大的驱动因素是美国的消费能力，而不像其他大宗商品那样容易受到中国经济增速放缓的影响。
'For every other commodity, demand from China is much more important,' says Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones, a financial-services firm that oversees $712 billion in client assets.
金融服务公司爱德华·琼斯(Edward Jones)的投资策略师凯特·沃恩(Kate Warne)表示：&对于其他大宗商品来讲，中国的需求对走势的影响举足轻重。&爱德华·琼斯公司管理的客户资产高达7,120亿美元。
Instead of attempting to get exposure to oil through an oil-futures ETF such as the United States Oil Fund, some strategists recommend investing in companies such as oil-field-services provider National-Oilwell Varco or oil major Chevron.
相较于通过美国石油基金等原油期货ETF来投资原油，一些策略师建议，投资者可以通过购买美国国民油井华高公司(National-Oilwell Varco)等油田服务供应商或石油巨头雪佛兰(Chevron)的股票来进行这一板块的投资。
Investors also should consider buying shares of oil and gas pipeline companies, says Michael Peterson, managing director of energy research at investment bank MLV & Co.
投资银行MLV & Co的能源研究常务董事迈克尔·皮特森(Michael Peterson)表示，投资者还应该考虑购买原油和天然气管道公司的股票。
Such companies, called master limited partnerships, are poised to benefit as booming energy production creates a need for more transportation infrastructure. They also offer tax benefits and are insulated from the ups and downs of energy prices, he says.
这类公司为业主有限责任合伙企业(Master Limited Partnership)，它们希望从由能源生产的繁荣带来的对输送基础设施的需求中获利。皮特森表示，投资这类股票能够得到税收优惠，并且还能免受能源价格的波动带来的影响。
Some MLPs to consider include companies such as Plains All American Pipeline, Genesis Energy and Magellan Midstream Partners, which would benefit as pipeline and logistics needs grow, says Mr. Peterson.
皮特森表示，可以考虑投资的业主有限责任合伙企业包括美国PAA公司(Plains All American Pipeline)、创世纪能源(Genesis Energy)和美国麦哲伦石油公司(Magellan Midstream Partners)，这些公司有望受益于管道和物流需求的增长。
Dozens of mutual funds and exchange-traded products also specialize in MLPs, but those managed portfolios charge annual expenses that can exceed 1% of assets, often impair the tax advantages of owning MLPs directly and occasionally trade for considerably less than the underlying value of their holdings.
很多共同基金和交易所交易产品也专注于对业主有限责任合伙企业的投资，但是这些产品收取的年化管理费用甚至高于投资资产金额的1%，这往往会削弱直接持有业主有限责任合伙企业带来的税收优惠，这些产品交易操作的频率之低也往往不值得投资者支付如此之高的管理费用。
Precious Metals
The precious-metals market has been hit by a perceived policy shift by the Federal Reserve, as investors gaming a pullback from the central bank's stimulus efforts seek out higher-yielding assets like stocks.
美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)可能实施的政策调整打击了贵金属市场，因为猜测美联储将削减刺激举措的投资者纷纷转向股票等收益率更高的资产。
Gold prices have plunged 22% in response, while silver's 34% loss reminded traders why it often is called the devil's metal. Some investors don't expect those trends to change any time soon.
金价因此下跌了22%，而银价34%的跌幅则提醒着投资者为什么这种金属常常被称为&魔鬼的金属&。一些投资者认为这种趋势在近期不会得到任何改观。
'Inevitably, gold is going to go lower as we go from easing to more restrictive policies,' says Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Archer Financial Services.
阿彻金融服务公司(Archer Financial Services)的资深市场策略师亚当·科洛普芬斯坦(Adam Klopfenstein)称：&毫无疑问，随着美国的经济政策由宽松走向审慎，金价将继续走低。&
Meanwhile, gold-mining stocks have fared even worse. The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index, which tracks 17 gold-mining companies, is down 45% in 2013.
与此同时，金矿类股的表现甚至更糟。今年迄今，追踪17家黄金矿商股票的纽约证交所金矿股指数(NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index)已经下跌了45%。
Still, sifting through the rubble could uncover some bargains, says T. Rowe Price Group portfolio manager Rick de los Reyes.
不过，普信集团(T. Rowe Price Group)的投资组合经理瑞克·德洛斯雷耶斯(Rick de los Reyes)表示，如果仔细筛选的话，还是能够发现一些值得投资的对象。
'It's getting easier to separate the haves and the have-nots, the companies who have good, low-cost assets and good businesses and the ones who don't,' he says.
他说：&分辨出优质公司和劣质公司变得越来越简单了，优质公司拥有高品质的低成本资产和优良的业务，而劣质公司则不具有这些优势。&
So, while all gold miners will need to cut costs as prices fall, Mr. de los Reyes says that companies like Eldorado Gold─which is down 43% this year and has a P/E of 25.4─are likely to remain profitable and continue to pay dividends while others, like Barrick Gold and Kinross Gold, will struggle. The former is down 52% and has a P/E of 6.4; the latter is down 48% and has a P/E of 17.5. Both recently cut their dividends.
所以，德洛斯雷耶斯称，当所有的黄金矿商都需要顺应金价走低而削减成本时，像埃尔拉多黄金公司(Eldorado Gold)这样的企业仍有望保持盈利并继续为股票派息，而巴里克黄金公司(Barrick Gold)和金罗斯黄金公司(Kinross Gold)这样的企业则将举步维艰。埃尔拉多黄金公司的股价今年已下跌43%，其股价的市盈率为25.4；巴里克黄金公司和金罗斯黄金公司今年则分别下跌了52%和48%，它们股价的市盈率分别为6.4和17.5。巴里克黄金公司和金罗斯黄金公司最近都削减了派息。
Investors also could find treasure by digging deeper into the precious-metals vaults. Palladium, which is also used in car-exhaust filters, has held up better than other precious metals as auto sales have outperformed expectations.
通过挖掘贵金属的宝库，投资者也能找到宝物。由于汽车销量好于预期，可用作汽车尾气净化催化剂的钯金的表现超过了其他贵金属。
Here, exchange-traded funds like the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares, which charges a yearly fee of 0.75%, come in handy by removing the hassle of trading and storing the actual metal.
ETFS实体钯价ETF (ETFS Physical Palladium Shares)等交易所交易基金是投资钯金的便捷工具，通过投资这只基金，投资者可以免掉交易和储存实物金属的麻烦。该基金的年费费率为0.75%。
Industrial Metals
When pondering the future of industrial-metals prices, just look East. China accounts for about 45% of global demand for base metals like copper, zinc and nickel, and it is that country's economic growth and manufacturing activity that dictates which way prices will head in the coming months.
在预测工业金属的未来价格时，请将目光投向东方。中国对铜、锌和镍等贱金属的需求占全球需求总量的45%左右，决定工业金属价格未来几个月走势的也正是中国的经济增长和制造业活动。
So far this year, China's manufacturing gauge has wavered between contraction and expansion and economic growth has slowed to 7.5% in the second quarter from 7.7% in the January to March period.
今年迄今，中国的制造业指数一直在紧缩和扩张之间游移，此外，中国的经济增速已经从第一季度的7.7%降至第二季度的7.5%。
Nickel prices are down 18% this year, while copper and aluminum are off 13%, zinc is down 10%, tin is off 9.7% and lead has sunk 8%.
今年，镍价下跌了18%，铜价和铝价下跌了13%，锌价下跌了10%，锡价下跌了9.7%，铅价则下跌了8%。
Even so, some see opportunity.
即便如此，一些人还是看到了投资机会。
'If you believe the way to make money is to buy low and sell high, I would look at metals that are getting close to their cost of production,' says Tom Winmill, portfolio manager at Midas Perpetual Portfolio .
迈达斯长期资产组合(Midas Perpetual Portfolio)的投资组合经理汤姆·温米尔(Tom Winmill)表示：&如果你相信赚钱就应该通过低买高卖的话，那么我会建议你关注那些价格接近生产成本的金属。&
Mr. Winmill says global economic growth is set to pick up pace early next year, boosting global demand for industrial metal.
温米尔表示，全球经济增长将于明年年初加速，这将促进全球对工业金属的需求。
As a result, he holds Southern Peru Copper in his fund because he thinks the company is well managed and pays dividends. The stock is up 1.5% this year.
因此，温米尔将南秘鲁铜业公司(Southern Peru Copper)的股票纳入了基金的投资对象，因为他认为该公司管理有序，且该公司为股票派息。今年，南秘鲁铜业公司的股票上涨了1.5%。
Mr. Winmill also plans to look at building a holding in copper futures in September, when demand hits a seasonal lull, as prices have yet to reach their lows for the year.
温米尔还计划考虑在今年9月建立铜期货头寸，届时将是铜的季节性淡季，目前的铜价仍未降至年内低位。
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