油服设备订单回暖 有待利润弹性释放(附股)
作者：刘国清 钱建江 刘瑜
　　(601099,)证券
　　投资建议
　　本周核心组合：(600031,)、(601100,)、(000425,)、(000528,)、(600761,)、(000039,)、(603203,)、(601766,)、(002472,)和(300607,)。
　　长期推荐组合：(603611,)、(603960,)、(002833,)、(002403,)、(603308,)、(300097,)、(300567,)、(300604,)、(300316,)、(300503,)、(002026,)、(300024,)、(300470,)、(002896,)、(000976,)和(002353,)。
　　本周观点
　　影响的几个因素分析：1、基本面，包括供需关系以及库存。从需求端看，原油是全球主要能源之一，其需求与全球经济景气度呈正相关关系。目前来看，全球经济正稳步回暖，且增长权重进一步分散，稳健的经济带来了原油需求的持续回升，近日EIA上调了2018年全球原油需求增速预期10万b/d，即同比将增长172万b/d。从供给端看，2017年OPEC和非OPEC成员国联合减产协议执行情况良好，且成功延期并加入两个豁免国；北美增产平稳，有维持较高油价盘活现有资产恢复活力的动力。从库存看，由于2017年全年原油处于供不应求状态（EIA预测2018Q1将继续有缺口），需要库存在弥补，由此导致库存处于下降通道，对油价上涨有催化作用。2、货币，主要是石油。美元和油价挂钩，存在一个此消彼长的剪刀差关系，在原油供求关系不发生大变化的情况下，美元贬值使大量美元流入国际市场，就会带来油价上涨的压力，因此，如果美元大周期开始走熊，也将推动油价上涨。3、地缘政治、投机及黑天鹅。这是最复杂同时也是最不好预测的影响因素，比如沙特阿美IPO对高油价有强烈诉求，而俄罗斯希望油价与销量能处于一个使自身利益最大化的状态等等。
　　油价中枢有望上行，对油服设备的传导需要密切跟踪：总的来说，短期看（2018Q1）各方因素基本都作用与油价上涨的方向，中长期看还需要看2018年6月减产协议中间评估、美国页岩油开采情况等各方面因素的变化；全年看油价中枢有望温和上行。至于对油服设备的影响，根据我们的调研，目前设备公司订单确有回暖，但毛利率依然承压，如果后续油价能够持续稳定在70美元/桶左右水平，设备需求将出现爆发，再加上北美设备行业的出清，全球设备采购将转向中国，有望出现“量价齐升”态势，值得密切跟踪。
　　油价中枢有望上行，油服设备订单回暖，有待利润弹性释放。
　　来源为金融界股票频道的作品，均为版权作品，未经书面授权禁止任何媒体转载，否则视为侵权！
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同花顺爱基金[{"date":"","value":"-48.02","vol":"1.03"},{"date":"","value":"-30.96","vol":"-0.31"},{"date":"","value":"-17.23","vol":"-0.16"},{"date":"","value":"-97.43","vol":"-2.00"},{"date":"","value":"-20.11","vol":"-2.81"}]
净资产收益率(%)
该指标值越高，盈利能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
销售毛利率
[{"date":"","value":"0.28","vol":"20.95"},{"date":"","value":"-0.13","vol":"26.03"},{"date":"","value":"-4.39","vol":"7.31"},{"date":"","value":"-24.68","vol":"28.08"},{"date":"","value":"-12.73","vol":"29.79"}]
销售毛利率(%)
该指标值越高，盈利能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
成长能力：较强，高于行业平均，建议加强关注，两项指标的行业排名分别为 26/43 ， 18/43。
营业收入同比增长率
[{"date":"","value":"8.08","vol":"185.39"},{"date":"","value":"6.17","vol":"90.86"},{"date":"","value":"3.58","vol":"207.55"},{"date":"","value":"-28.87","vol":"31.16"},{"date":"","value":"-19.17","vol":"5.24"}]
营业收入同比增长率(%)
该指标值越高，成长能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
净利润同比增长率
[{"date":"","value":"62.68","vol":"149.67"},{"date":"","value":"49.32","vol":"-288.85"},{"date":"","value":"20.17","vol":"55.45"},{"date":"","value":"-65933.66","vol":"-1687.76"},{"date":"","value":"-226.69","vol":"-13.06"}]
净利润同比增长率(%)
该指标值越高，成长能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
营运能力：尚可，接近行业平均，可适当关注，两项指标的行业排名分别为 11/43 ， 24/43。
总资产周转率
[{"date":"","value":"0.42","vol":"0.44"},{"date":"","value":"0.28","vol":"0.23"},{"date":"","value":"0.12","vol":"0.10"},{"date":"","value":"0.54","vol":"0.49"},{"date":"","value":"0.23","vol":"0.15"}]
总资产周转率(次)
该指标值越高，营运能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
存货增长率
[{"date":"","value":"2.66","vol":"8.64"},{"date":"","value":"1.85","vol":"9.70"},{"date":"","value":"0.91","vol":"2.04"},{"date":"","value":"4.44","vol":"19.58"},{"date":"","value":"1.35","vol":"6.55"}]
存货增长率(次)
该指标值越高，营运能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
现金流能力：尚可，接近行业平均，可适当关注，两项指标的行业排名分别为 7/43 ， 7/43。
经营活动产生的现金流量净额/营业收入
[{"date":"","value":"-3.82","vol":"-5.96"},{"date":"","value":"-6.13","vol":"-3.86"},{"date":"","value":"-14.89","vol":"56.31"},{"date":"","value":"4.76","vol":"-3.91"},{"date":"","value":"-16.69","vol":"5.57"}]
现金流量净额/营业收入
该指标值越高，现金流能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
资本支出／折旧和摊销
[{"date":"","value":"","vol":"0.00"},{"date":"","value":"0.08","vol":"2.44"},{"date":"","value":"","vol":"0.00"},{"date":"","value":"0.22","vol":"16.94"},{"date":"","value":"0.09","vol":"1.35"}]
资本支出／折旧和摊销
该指标值越低，现金流能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
短期偿债能力：很强，位居行业前列,建议强烈关注，两项指标的行业排名分别为 26/43 ， 20/43。
[{"date":"","value":"0.61","vol":"2.75"},{"date":"","value":"0.61","vol":"10.30"},{"date":"","value":"0.62","vol":"2.93"},{"date":"","value":"0.63","vol":"3.62"},{"date":"","value":"0.77","vol":"5.33"}]
该指标值越接近2，短期偿债能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
[{"date":"","value":"0.36","vol":"1.93"},{"date":"","value":"0.38","vol":"6.58"},{"date":"","value":"0.41","vol":"2.29"},{"date":"","value":"0.46","vol":"2.88"},{"date":"","value":"0.42","vol":"3.36"}]
该指标值越接近1，短期偿债能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
长期偿债能力：较强，高于行业平均，建议加强关注，两项指标的行业排名分别为 36/43 ， 1/43。
资产负债率
[{"date":"","value":"92.16","vol":"39.67"},{"date":"","value":"90.77","vol":"36.68"},{"date":"","value":"89.87","vol":"38.15"},{"date":"","value":"88.67","vol":"39.10"},{"date":"","value":"73.93","vol":"27.69"}]
资产负债率(%)
该指标值越接近50%，长期偿债能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
[{"date":"","value":"11.75","vol":"1.43"},{"date":"","value":"9.84","vol":"1.07"},{"date":"","value":"8.87","vol":"1.15"},{"date":"","value":"7.82","vol":"6.19"},{"date":"","value":"2.84","vol":"0.63"}]
产权比率(%)
该指标值越高，长期偿债能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
最近60个交易日，机构评级以买入为主，认为该股票非常值得关注。
机构预测该股2017年每股收益与前一年相同，长期投资价值一般。
[{"date":"2013","yellowRectValue":"-14.54","blueLineValue":"","type":""},{"date":"2014","yellowRectValue":"12.30","blueLineValue":"","type":""},{"date":"2015","yellowRectValue":"0.24","blueLineValue":"","type":""},{"date":"2016","yellowRectValue":"-161.15","blueLineValue":"","type":""},{"date":"2017","yellowRectValue":"-46.24","blueLineValue":"-0.33","type":"YC"}][{"date":"","value":"1.67","vol":"7.12"},{"date":"","value":"0.71","vol":"3.59"},{"date":"","value":"0.14","vol":"1.55"},{"date":"","value":"1.82","vol":"10.16"},{"date":"","value":"0.06","vol":"3.83"}]
净资产收益率(%)
该指标值越高，盈利能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
销售毛利率
[{"date":"","value":"12.21","vol":"24.11"},{"date":"","value":"11.34","vol":"25.74"},{"date":"","value":"10.38","vol":"21.63"},{"date":"","value":"12.92","vol":"25.75"},{"date":"","value":"11.43","vol":"23.55"}]
销售毛利率(%)
该指标值越高，盈利能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
成长能力：较强，高于行业平均，建议加强关注，两项指标的行业排名分别为 55/278 ， 2/278。
营业收入同比增长率
[{"date":"","value":"6.51","vol":"47.69"},{"date":"","value":"22.47","vol":"66.47"},{"date":"","value":"38.37","vol":"56.20"},{"date":"","value":"-5.74","vol":"24.98"},{"date":"","value":"-17.70","vol":"23.60"}]
营业收入同比增长率(%)
该指标值越高，成长能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
净利润同比增长率
[{"date":"","value":"2275.18","vol":"130.84"},{"date":"","value":"138.96","vol":"-24.08"},{"date":"","value":"119.58","vol":"213.94"},{"date":"","value":"77.00","vol":"-28.91"},{"date":"","value":"-72.44","vol":"-95.14"}]
净利润同比增长率(%)
该指标值越高，成长能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
营运能力：较强，高于行业平均，建议加强关注，两项指标的行业排名分别为 20/278 ， 16/278。
总资产周转率
[{"date":"","value":"0.57","vol":"0.51"},{"date":"","value":"0.38","vol":"0.41"},{"date":"","value":"0.19","vol":"0.15"},{"date":"","value":"0.87","vol":"0.94"},{"date":"","value":"0.56","vol":"0.40"}]
总资产周转率(次)
该指标值越高，营运能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
存货增长率
[{"date":"","value":"4.60","vol":"3.66"},{"date":"","value":"3.43","vol":"2.19"},{"date":"","value":"1.68","vol":"1.08"},{"date":"","value":"8.58","vol":"5.67"},{"date":"","value":"5.51","vol":"3.61"}]
存货增长率(次)
该指标值越高，营运能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
现金流能力：数据暂时不全，请后续关注
经营活动产生的现金流量净额/营业收入
[{"date":"","value":"1.87","vol":"11.22"},{"date":"","value":"-3.19","vol":"7.62"},{"date":"","value":"-12.71","vol":"-6.18"},{"date":"","value":"7.83","vol":"11.00"},{"date":"","value":"3.95","vol":"8.92"}]
现金流量净额/营业收入
该指标值越高，现金流能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
资本支出／折旧和摊销
[{"date":"","value":"","vol":"0.00"},{"date":"","value":"1.95","vol":"2.27"},{"date":"","value":"","vol":"0.06"},{"date":"","value":"0.53","vol":"3.69"},{"date":"","value":"","vol":"0.09"}]
资本支出／折旧和摊销
该指标值越低，现金流能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
短期偿债能力：很强，位居行业前列,建议强烈关注，两项指标的行业排名分别为 14/278 ， 1/278。
[{"date":"","value":"1.52","vol":"2.63"},{"date":"","value":"1.47","vol":"2.93"},{"date":"","value":"1.44","vol":"2.91"},{"date":"","value":"1.41","vol":"2.68"},{"date":"","value":"1.38","vol":"2.35"}]
该指标值越接近2，短期偿债能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
[{"date":"","value":"0.99","vol":"1.51"},{"date":"","value":"1.04","vol":"1.76"},{"date":"","value":"1.03","vol":"1.72"},{"date":"","value":"1.05","vol":"1.66"},{"date":"","value":"0.98","vol":"1.35"}]
该指标值越接近1，短期偿债能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
长期偿债能力：尚可，接近行业平均，可适当关注，两项指标的行业排名分别为 23/278 ， 32/278。
资产负债率
[{"date":"","value":"42.13","vol":"41.86"},{"date":"","value":"39.75","vol":"43.08"},{"date":"","value":"38.26","vol":"40.60"},{"date":"","value":"41.57","vol":"43.55"},{"date":"","value":"36.47","vol":"34.11"}]
资产负债率(%)
该指标值越接近50%，长期偿债能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
[{"date":"","value":"0.77","vol":"1.34"},{"date":"","value":"0.69","vol":"1.05"},{"date":"","value":"0.65","vol":"0.84"},{"date":"","value":"0.74","vol":"1.05"},{"date":"","value":"0.59","vol":"0.80"}]
产权比率(%)
该指标值越高，长期偿债能力越强，行业排名越靠前。
最近60个交易日，机构评级以买入为主，认为该股票非常值得关注。
机构预测该股2017年每股收益与前一年相同，长期投资价值一般。
[{"date":"2013","yellowRectValue":"0.97","blueLineValue":"","type":""},{"date":"2014","yellowRectValue":"0.71","blueLineValue":"","type":""},{"date":"2015","yellowRectValue":"0.22","blueLineValue":"","type":""},{"date":"2016","yellowRectValue":"0.38","blueLineValue":"","type":""},{"date":"2017","yellowRectValue":"0.79","blueLineValue":"0.10","type":"YC"}]