国泰君安：04年股市彻底摆脱熊市 喜迎蓝筹时代
国泰君安：04年股市彻底摆脱熊市 喜迎蓝筹时代
[ 张炜 ] 来源：[
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　　相关研究认为:
　　○绩优大盘蓝筹股仍将是未来股价结构调整中主流资金的追捧对象
　　○在价值投资理念主导的市场中,选择行业比选择时机更重要。只有适应证券市场投资理念的转变,把握行业景气周期,集中行业配置,才能分享高于市场平均水平的超额收益
　　○明年投资者可以把握的创新机会主要有国有股减持、TCL(,)模式复制、新投资品种和创新工具的推出等
　　每逢岁末,下一年股市走势总是一个热门话题。国泰君安(,)证券研究所日前在＂2004年投资策略研讨会＂上,向来自基金、保险、信托、上市公司、各类投资公司和海外金融机构的150余位机构投资者代表抛出了自己的观点:2004年的股市将彻底摆脱熊市局面,全面进入＂大蓝筹时代＂。
　　＂大蓝筹时代＂已经到来
　　所谓＂大蓝筹时代＂,是指股市处于投资行业龙头、大市值蓝筹公司的价值投资时代。具体而言,在股价结构性调整加快的背景下,在把握行业景气周期的基础上,明年选择具有行业龙头地位、大市值蓝筹公司进行投资的收益,将会与今年一样超越市场平均水平。
　　国泰君安研究所在考察沪深股市自2001年高点调整以来A股流通市值的分布变化趋势后发现:上市公司的流通市值差距日趋明显,以往小市值股票以中高价股为主,而今小市值股票中超低价股的数量明显增长,大市值股票的价格水平已经超过了小市值股票的价格水平。这一趋势说明,在价值投资理念的作用下,市场对大、小市值的股票有了重新的定位,流通市值规模差距开始成为上市公司的内在价值差异性的真实反映。大市值蓝筹板块因被市场所认同而呈现价格水平逐步提升的趋势,而小市值概念则逐渐为市场所淡忘。
　　研究表明,绩优大盘蓝筹股仍然是未来股价结构调整中主流资金的追捧对象。以宝钢股份(,)、中国石化(,)、中国联通(,)、长江电力(,)等为代表的大盘蓝筹股基于可预期的稳定成长将在未来的几年内保持主流投资品种的市场地位,并在股市的结构性调整中保持相对稳定。
　　选择行业比选择时机重要
　　2003年汽车、电力、石化、钢铁等行业的表现证明,在价值投资理念主导的市场中,选择行业比选择时机更重要。只有适应中国证券市场投资理念的转变,把握行业景气周期,集中行业配置,才能分享高于市场平均水平的超额收益。
　　在消费的升级、基础设施的建设以及＂世界工厂＂这三大动力的推动下,中国经济已经进入了新一轮景气周期。预计2004年将出现＂弱势美元＂和＂温和通胀＂的格局,而国内的基础原材料的价格仍会从＂弱势美元＂的格局中获益。由于不同行业对经济周期的敏感性不同,不同行业的市场表现会存在时间上的差异,国泰君安研究所认为,按照一般的经济周期规律,最先启动的行业是周期性消费品行业,主要是住宅和轿车；然后是电子信息、机械设备等投资品,以及交通运输业；在经济进入快速增长时,能源、基础原材料等开始供不应求,价格上涨,这类行业的增长一般会延续至整个经济扩张期的结束。金融服务、城市交通以及消费品、零售、药品等行业,受经济周期的影响不大,属于防御性行业。据此,国泰君安研究所认为,明年最看好的行业是钢铁、工程机械、汽车；其次看好的行业是石化、有色金属、港口、机场、电力、煤炭、连锁商业。
　　国资改革带来并购机遇
　　根据国资管理体制改革计划,国家直接拥有的企业将在目前的9000多家中保留1200家左右,并将培育30至50家左右具有国际竞争力的大公司,对189家中央企业进行改制,实现股权的多元化,其中钢铁、电力、汽车三大领域将成为产权多元化改革的重点。
　　目前,利用资本市场并购重组国有资产的方式有两类,一类是转让国有股权、利用存量国有资产进行合资等。已经上市的国有企业,在符合国家产业政策以及国有经济和结构战略性调整的条件下,可以转让国有股权,引进战略投资者重组上市公司,提高上市公司质量。具体运作程序可以通过＂包装整合------大型化------股权转让------多元化------引入竞争------国际化＂来进行；另一类是借壳上市,一些具有竞争优势和良好资产质量的国有企业可以通过收购上市公司的股权借壳上市,利用资本市场做大做强。
　　数据显示,从各行业上市公司的状况来看,石油化工、金属非金属、交通运输仓储、水电煤气、信息技术、机械设备行业上市公司的国有股规模居于前列,而石油化工、金属非金属、采掘、信息技术、交通运输仓储、水电煤气、造纸、印刷等行业的国有股占本行业总股本的比例较高,这表明国家对这些行业的控制程度较高。预计在未来国有股通过重组、购并等方式减持的过程中,金属非金属、水电煤气、信息技术、交通运输仓储、造纸印刷等竞争性行业的减持活动将率先推进。
　　在创新中把握机会
　　今年南钢股份(,)的并购和TCL的换股上市等创新,曾为投资者创造了一些投资机会。国泰君安研究所认为,明年投资者可以把握的创新机会主要有国有股减持、TCL模式复制、新的投资品种和创新工具推出等。
　　首先是国有股减持试点。如果2004年确立减持原则并进行减持试点,则极有可能提前引发整个市场行情,一旦市场出现反转,在我国新兴证券市场周围囤聚的大量缺乏投资机会的资金将不断涌入,从而引发新一轮行情。其次是关注有可能复制＂TCL模式＂的公司。TCL集团通过合并TCL股份公司而实现整体上市的方案是国内股市具有开拓性的创新,而这种一举多赢的模式明年有可能被其它上市公司借鉴。第三是新的投资品种和创新工具的推出。明年还值得关注的是交易所交易基金和货币市场基金,将给投资者带来新的投资途径。
　　(上海证券报记者张炜)
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