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November 23, 2007 November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
COMPANY UPDATE
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
Bul raising earnings and target price
What's changed
Following two days with management visiting HK-based investors, we have stronger conviction in the company’s earnings growth potential next year. We have raised our 2008 and 2009 earnings estimates (already top of the market) by 3.3% and 2.1%, respectively, and still see more upside if the company executes well next year. We raise our price target by 20% to HK$20.6, offering 34% potential upside from the current level. We think it is not too late to get into this stock as we believe operational improvement has only just begun, with significant upside yet to be realized. Lingering market skepticism means valuation is still undemanding for a national franchise reaching uncommon dominance.
Investment Profile: Gome Electrical Appliances
Low Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility Percentile 0493.HK Asia Pacific Consumer Peer Group Average * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document. 20th 40th 60th 80th High Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility 100th
Implications
Continued gross margin pickup is a key component of the earnings growth story in 2008, and we think the market is under-appreciating how much the margin can improve just by picking some of the still low-hanging fruits. Key drivers are 1) improved category management in 3C 2) further penetration of exclusive and
3) enhanc 4) rollout of warranty extension services. Acceleration of same-store sales (management targets +3-5% comps next year vs. less than 1% this year) further improves the quality of earnings growth.
Key data Price (HK$) 12 month price target (HK$) Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) Foreign ownership (%)
Current 15.40 20.60 50,186.9 / 6,449.9 --
EPS (HK$) New EPS revision (%) EPS growth (%) EPS (dil) (Rmb) New P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
12/06 0.37 0.0 27.4 0.25 41.9 8.7 13.9 0.5 24.6
12/07E 0.40 (2.3) 9.0 0.34 38.5 6.1 21.3 1.2 18.9
12/08E 0.79 6.8 96.8 0.65 19.5 5.1 15.3 1.7 26.7
12/09E 1.00 7.5 27.1 0.78 15.4 4.2 11.5 2.1 27.0
Gome is trading at 19.9X 2008E P/E (recurring & fully diluted), well below the average of 30.8X 2008E P/E for the leading Chinese national retail franchises. Our DCF-derived 12-month target price puts the stock at 26.6X 2008E P/E or PEG of 1.1X.
Price performance chart
18 16 14 12 10 8
15,500 14,500 13,500 12,500 11,500 10,500 9,500 8,500 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 MSCI Hong Kong (R)
Execution slippage and uncertainties surrounding Dazhong.
6 4 Nov-06
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (L)
INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Asia Pacific Buy List Coverage View: Attractive
China: Retail Joshua Lu +852- | joshua. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Larry Cho +852- | larry. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Share price performance (%) Absolute Rel. to MSCI Hong Kong
3 month 35.1 11.0
6 month 12 month 21.6 139.9 1.2 77.8
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 11/22/2007 close.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the text preceding the disclosures. For other important disclosures go to /research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not required to take the NASD/NYSE analyst exam.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Investment Research
November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding: Summary financials
Profit model (Rmb mn) Total revenue Cost of goods sold SG&A R&D Other operating profit/(expense) EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest income Interest expense Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. Others Pretax profits Income tax Minorities Net income pre-preferred dividends Preferred dividends Net income (pre-exceptionals) Post-tax exceptionals Net income EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) DPS (HK$) Dividend payout ratio (%) Free cash flow yield (%) Growth & margins (%) Sales growth EBITDA growth EBIT growth Net income growth EPS growth Gross margin EBITDA margin EBIT margin 12/06 24,729.2 (22,369.4) (2,678.2) -1,250.8 1,050.1 (117.8) 932.3 126.2 (65.4) 0.0 75.1 1,068.2 (125.6) (123.5) 819.2 0.0 725.6 93.5 819.2 0.33 0.38 0.25 0.08 20.7 (2.8) 12/06 37.7 22.4 15.8 64.3 24.2 9.5 4.2 3.8 12/07E 42,001.6 (38,039.5) (4,540.4) -2,543.2 2,120.2 (155.3) 1,964.9 399.1 (226.0) 0.0 (545.3) 1,592.8 (320.7) (39.4) 1,232.6 0.0 1,863.5 (630.9) 1,232.6 0.59 0.39 0.34 0.18 44.1 1.4 12/07E 69.8 101.9 110.8 50.5 3.3 9.4 5.0 4.7 12/08E 51,012.3 (45,910.3) (5,647.4) -3,208.3 2,879.5 (216.6) 2,662.9 370.2 (226.1) 0.0 0.0 2,806.9 (449.1) (45.3) 2,312.5 0.0 2,492.5 (180.0) 2,312.5 0.76 0.71 0.65 0.25 32.3 3.8 12/08E 21.5 35.8 35.5 87.6 82.3 10.0 5.6 5.2 12/09E 61,279.5 (54,998.3) (6,943.9) -3,954.8 3,567.3 (275.1) 3,292.1 382.7 (229.3) 0.0 0.0 3,445.5 (585.7) (52.2) 2,807.6 0.0 2,990.8 (183.2) 2,807.6 0.92 0.86 0.78 0.32 32.0 6.7 12/09E 20.1 23.9 23.6 21.4 21.4 10.3 5.8 5.4 Balance sheet (Rmb mn) Cash & equivalents Accounts receivable Inventory Other current assets Total current assets Net PP&E Net intangibles Total investments Other long-term assets Total assets Accounts payable Short-term debt Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Other long-term liabilities Total long-term liabilities Total liabilities Common stock & premium Other common equity Total common equity Minority interest Total liabilities & equity BVPS (HK$) Ratios ROE (%) ROA (%) ROACE (%) Inventory days Receivables days Payable days Net debt/equity (%) Interest cover - EBIT (X) Valuation Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) Net income pre-preferred dividends D&A add-back Minorities interests add-back Net inc/(dec) working capital Other operating cash flow Cash flow from operations Capital expenditures Acquisitions Divestitures Others Cash flow from investments Dividends paid (common & pref) Inc/(dec) in debt Common stock issuance (repurchase) Other financing cash flows Cash flow from financing Total cash flow 12/06 819.2 117.8 123.5 (813.6) (51.9) 195.0 (278.0) (729.6) 3.8 0.0 (1,003.9) (417.1) 507.0 0.0 1,095.0 1,184.9 376.0 12/07E 1,232.6 155.3 39.4 (1,473.9) 176.9 130.3 (979.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (979.8) (559.0) 0.0 1,463.0 4,600.0 5,504.0 4,654.5 12/08E 2,312.5 216.6 45.3 (342.3) 180.0 2,412.1 (1,332.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1,332.7) (747.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (747.7) 331.6 12/09E 2,807.6 275.1 52.2 (235.4) 183.2 3,082.7 (877.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (877.2) (897.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (897.2) 1,308.3 P/E (analyst) (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Dividend yield (%) 12/06 1,451.8 1,373.4 4,882.8 7,789.1 15,497.1 2,206.7 3,369.9 6.2 96.3 21,176.2 12,614.6 729.3 1,611.5 14,955.4 726.7 253.7 980.4 15,935.8 5,041.5 110.1 5,151.6 88.8 21,176.2 1.65 12/06 24.6 5.4 25.9 62.1 13.6 158.4 0.1 NM 12/06 41.9 8.7 13.9 0.5 12/07E 6,106.3 2,940.1 5,325.5 10,280.1 24,652.1 3,031.2 3,369.9 6.2 96.3 31,155.6 15,406.0 729.3 1,846.6 17,981.9 4,441.3 734.2 5,175.6 23,157.5 7,086.2 783.7 7,869.9 128.2 31,155.6 2.48 12/07E 18.9 4.7 27.7 49.0 18.7 134.4 (11.9) NM 12/07E 38.5 6.1 21.3 1.2 12/08E 6,437.9 3,749.4 6,363.2 11,509.0 28,059.5 4,147.3 3,369.9 6.2 96.3 35,679.3 17,824.7 729.3 2,161.4 20,715.5 4,621.3 734.2 5,355.6 26,071.0 7,086.2 2,348.4 9,434.7 173.6 35,679.3 3.21 12/08E 26.7 6.9 30.4 46.5 23.9 132.1 (11.5) NM 12/08E 19.5 5.1 15.3 1.7 12/09E 7,746.2 4,684.2 7,546.5 13,255.5 33,232.5 4,749.4 3,369.9 6.2 96.3 41,454.3 21,090.5 729.3 2,525.0 24,344.8 4,804.6 734.2 5,538.8 29,883.6 7,086.2 4,258.8 11,345.0 225.7 41,454.3 4.05 12/09E 27.0 7.3 32.0 46.2 25.1 129.1 (19.5) NM 12/09E 15.4 4.2 11.5 2.1
Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
Analyst Contributors Joshua Lu joshua. Larry Cho larry.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
Stronger conviction in the margin raising earnings, target price
We spent the past two days with Gome management visiting HK-based investors following the company’s 3Q earnings release. Overall, our meetings have given us stronger conviction in the company’s earnings growth potential in 2008/09. We have raised our earnings estimates (already top of the market) by 3.3% for 2008 and 2.1% for 2009. Our price target increases to HK$20.6 from HK$17.2 (a result of earnings revision, rolling forward to end-2008, and higher RMB assumption), offering 34% potential upside in the next 12 months.
Four pillars of continued gross margin expansion in 2008
When comparing Gome with global peers, one clear disparity is that Gome (and other Chinese CE retailers) earn a combined gross margin well below that of peers (Exhibit 1). While management believes that over the longer term Gome’s gross margin should catch up with peers, we believe the market remains unconvinced. In particular, the market remains concerned that expanding GP margin from squeezing suppliers or raising prices cannot be sustained. In our view, this concern is misplaced. During the past 2 days management elaborated how there are still a number of low-hanging fruits that can drive continued GP margin expansion without hurting the company’s competitiveness (or squeezing the suppliers). We see four key components to the story: Exhibit 1: Gome adjusted gross margin remains well below peers
Gross margin comparison of Int’l peers vs. Gome, 2006
20% 15.2%*
0% Best Buy Circuit City Yamada Denki Gome
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Research. *denotes adjusted gross margin for 9M07.
1) Intensify category management of “3C” products. 3C products refer to communication (mobile phones), consumer electronics (mainly digital cameras and MP3 players) and computers. These three categories account for close to 30% of Gome’s total sales, but earn an adjusted GP margin around 3ppt below the group average. Management believes the margin differential is ultimately the result of a lack of focused category management, as Gome already enjoys the lowest procurement cost thanks to its status as China’s single largest distributor for most brands. Given the appliances market is now reasonably stable, management’s focus next year will be to improve its category management of the 3C products. The company has carved out a separate team to tackle
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3
November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
mobile products, and the recent tie-ups with Microsoft and Dell are also part of this initiative. It is also tweaking the contract terms with other PC makers to expand the product offering range (one of the key issues in the past is its lack of complete product range). Gome believes that it is possible that these efforts could lift the GP margin of these products next year to the group average, and this alone can translate into 1ppt expansion in the GP margin. 2) Further increase the sales penetration of exclusive and proprietary products. These products earn a GP margin 30% higher than the commodity products. For 2007 these high margin products represent around 15% of total sales, and management aims to boost that to 25-30% of total sales. This could add another 40-50bps to the GP margin. 3) Enhancement in procurement scale. This should allow the company to get better terms from suppliers, and could boost GP margin by another 10-20bps. 4) Rollout of warranty services. A wildcard as the service has just been launched in 2007, but it has proved to be one of the key profit contributors to the CE retailers in US/Europe. GP margin of the insurance premium is around 40%, which means that if insurance premium can reach 1% of total revenue for Gome (insurance premium can amount to 3-4% of revenue for some global CE retailers), it can boost GP margin by 40bps. Gome’s management feels that it is not unreasonable to expect the premium to reach a quarter to half a percentage of sales in 2008, which would translate into a lift of GP margin of 0.1-0.2ppt life to the GP margin. So in a nutshell, we now have stronger conviction that GP margin can continue to expand in 2008 without eroding the company’s competitiveness or adding undue pressure to the suppliers. As shown in Exhibit 2, we have factored in just 0.8ppt expansion in the GP margin, which could prove to be conservative if all the initiatives mentioned above come through in the next year. Exhibit 2: Our '08E GP margin assumption could still be conservative
Components of GP margin drivers, 2008E
1. 2. 3. 4.
Better category management of 3C products Further penetration of exclusive/proprietary products Enhancement in scale Rollout of warranty services Total Our 2008E adjusted GP margin Pickup vs. 2007E
+0.5-1.0 +0.4-0.5 +0.1-0.2 +0.1-0.2 +1.1 - 1.9
ppt ppt ppt ppt ppt
16.3% +0.8 ppt
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
Same-store sales to accelerate - the end of “negative productivity loop”
Management has set a target of 3-5% same-store sales for 2008 (vs. 0.76% YTD in 2007), signifying that operating leverage and organic earnings growth will pick up next year. One of our key concerns in the past about Gome is what we called the “negative productivity loop”, whereby the company grew profit by opening stores to gain scale, allowing GP margin to expand but at the expense of deteriorating same-store sales. It is therefore encouraging to see continued growth in same store sales in 3Q (+1.1% vs. +0.59% in 1H).
Exhibit 3: We believe Gome has ended its “negative productivity loop”
Negative Productivity Loop
Lower Procurement Cost Higher Operating Leverage
What Gome achieved before
New Store Openings
Rising Sales
Lower Cost Structure
Same Store Sales
Lower Prices
Full Productivity Loop
Rising Sales
Lower Cost Structure
Lower Prices
Source: Goldman Sachs Research.
In a way, we believe it is simply a law of physics that as Gome slows down its square footage expansion to 10-15% and continues to gain market share, same-store sales growth should pick up with overall spending on CE products still growing in the mid-teens. While the 3-5% comps the company is targeting now are still a far cry from the 15-20% comps that the listed department stores are earning, we believe it represents an even better investment case to buy a company with accelerating comps, as is the case with Gome today.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
Valuation remains reasonable C Cheapest “national champion”
We believe Gome’s valuation still remains attractive, despite improving fundamentals and the fact that it is the most dominant in its field among all Chinese retailers (with the possible exception with Belle). However, it is still trading at 19.9X 2008E P/E (Recurring & fully diluted), well below that of the average of 30.8X 2008E P/E for the Chinese retail champions (chains/brands with a true national franchise). Our new price target of HK$20.6 would put the stock at 26.6X 2008E P/E, or PEG of 1.1X (E EPS CAGR vs. 2007E P/E).
Exhibit 4: Gome valuation remains one of the cheapest among the national champions
As of November 22, 2007
Company Food retailer Wumart Stores Inc. Lianhua Supermarket Holdings Co. Ltd. Times Ltd. Beijing Jingkelong Co. Ltd. Convenience Retail Asia Ltd. Broadline retailer Parkson Retail Group New World Department Store China Ltd. Golden Eagle Retail Group Intime Department Store (Group) Co. Ltd. Peace Mark (Holdings) Ltd. Xinyu Hengdeli Holdings Ltd. Branded retailer Belle International Holdings Ltd. Li Ning Co. Ltd. Anta Sports Products Ltd. Ports Design Ltd. China Hongxing Sports Ltd. Prime Success International Group Ltd. Ticker Currency Price 11/22/ 11.54 3.99 6.29 3.30 Mkt cap (US$ mn) 1,137 923 448 333 309 Median 5,185 1,864 1,656 1,608 1,554 1,220 Median 06 42.7 30.4 32.5 24.9 29.8 30.4 89.1 66.4 54.9 46.6 41.8 48.8 51.9 66.9 84.6 151.9 55.3 43.2 31.1 61.1 66.4 64.7 120.2 P/E X 07E 29.7 25.8 31.2 20.9 21.7 25.8 59.3 44.7 33.4 33.9 30.3 28.7 33.6 39.5 54.0 43.4 38.9 28.7 23.4 39.2 39.5 28.8 62.9 08E 21.1 19.7 21.8 12.8 15.2 19.7 40.5 34.7 24.4 24.4 21.8 21.3 24.4 33.2 37.3 29.7 30.8 20.2 18.3 30.3 30.8 19.9 42.3 09E 16.1 15.7 16.0 11.3 14.3 15.7 30.9 26.2 20.2 17.3 17.3 15.6 18.7 24.2 27.7 18.3 21.9 14.6 14.7 20.1 21.9 15.9 31.4 EPS CAGR 07-09E 35.7% 28.4% 39.8% 35.7% 23.0% 35.7% 38.5% 30.5% 28.7% 39.8% 32.5% 35.7% 34.1% 27.6% 39.6% 53.9% 33.3% 40.2% 26.1% 36.4% 33.3% 34.7% 41.6% PEG X Dividend yield EV/EBITDA 07E 08E 07E NA 4.6 29.0 NA NA 16.8 33.3 26.6 20.2 23.7 20.1 18.6 22.0 35.4 35.2 42.7 31.0 20.6 15.5 33.1 31.0 21.3 39.1 NA 4.1 22.2 NA NA 13.2 23.4 19.5 15.0 14.7 14.7 13.7 14.9 24.8 25.1 26.4 23.3 14.1 12.2 24.1 23.3 14.3 26.7 1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 2.3% 3.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% NA 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0% P/B X 06 NA 3.3 52.9 2.3 19.8 11.5 18.0 74.2 13.6 9.8 6.4 5.9 11.7 23.5 15.1 NA 14.3 14.3 9.2 14.3 14.7 9.1 28.1 ROE 06 13.4% 12.3% NM 14.8% 14.8% 14.1% 23.0% 57.9% 35.1% 34.1% 17.8% 18.4% 28.6% 56.4% 23.0% 84.5% 30.4% 38.1% 33.8% 35.9% 30.4% 24.6% 33.9%
8277 HK 980 HK 1832 HK 8245 HK 8052 HK
HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD
0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.5
3368 HK 825 HK 3308 HK 1833 HK 304 HK 3389 HK
HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD
72.45 8.60 7.09 6.95 11.60 3.82
1880 HK 2331 HK 2020 HK 589 HK CHHS SP 210 HK
HKD HKD HKD HKD SGD HKD
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding* Suning Appliance Co.
493 HK 002024 CH
10,156 3,145 2,810 1,794 1,357 1,164 Median National Leaders Median 15.40 6,571 60.05 11,679
9.36 23.60 8.78 25.00 0.92 5.53
National leaders include: Lianhua, Parkson, New World Department Store, Xinyu Hengdeli, Belle, Li Ning, Anta, Prime Success and Ports Design * Recurring fully diluted EPS
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Factset, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
Our PT is based on DCF, and the increase in our PT is based on the following factors: 1) upward earnings revision (3.3% for 2008 and 2.1% for 2009) 2) rolling forward valuation to end-2008 from end-2007 3) higher RMB appreciation assumption as per our economic team’s forecast Key assumptions and sensitivity analysis of our DCF is shown in Exhibit 5. Our earnings revisions are shown in Exhibit 6.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
Exhibit 5: DCF
Rmb mn Sales EBIT Depreciation & amortisation Minority interest Tax Capex & acquisitions Change in net working capital Free cash flow to the firm % chg
805 52 (279) (85) (797) (62) (365)
932 118 (123) (120) (1,008) (814) (1,015)
1,965 155 (39) (295) (980) (1,474) (668)
2,663 217 (45) (426) (1,333) (342) 733
3,292 275 (52) (560) (877) (235) 1,843
3,827 325 (60) (689) (756) (206) 2,441
4,534 372 (69) (861) (710) (153) 3,112 4 5,200 420 (77) (1,040) (729) (277) 3,496 7 5,918 471 (87) (1,243) (759) (291) 4,009 9 6,676 526 (96) (1,469) (820) (304) 4,513 3 7,467 588 (107) (1,717) (892) (317) 5,022 5 8,260 656 (117) (1,982) (965) (311) 5,541 1 9,045 732 (129) (2,261) (1,040) (303) 6,044 1 9,810 815 (142) (2,453) (1,118) (292) 6,620 8 10,548 906 (156) (2,637) (1,198) (281) 7,182 9 11,253 1,005 (172) (2,813) (1,280) (269) 7,724 5 11,919 1,114 (189) (2,980) (1,365) (257) 8,243
Discount factor PV of cash flows Key assumptions Sales growth EBIT margin VALUATION Total PV of cash flows Perpetual growth rate % Terminal value PV of terminal value Total firm value End-08E Net debt / (cash) Equity value (Rmb) Equity value (HK$) Diluted shares in issue (m) Equity value per share (HK$)
0.90 1,663
0.81 1,987
0.73 2,286
0.66 2,317
0.60 2,398
0.54 2,435
0.49 2,445
0.44 2,434
0.40 2,395
0.36 2,367
0.32 2,317
0.29 2,248
0.26 2,165
42.0% 4.48%
37.7% 3.77%
69.8% 4.68%
21.5% 5.22%
20.1% 5.37%
19.1% 5.24%
18.1% 5.26%
16.0% 5.20%
15.0% 5.14%
14.1% 5.09%
13.2% 5.03%
11.9% 4.97%
10.7% 4.92%
9.6% 4.87%
8.6% 4.82%
7.7% 4.77%
6.9% 4.73%
30,189 3.5% 116,356 30,559 60,748 (5,709) 66,456 73,788 3,579 20.6
WACC CALCULATION Risk free rate Beta Equity risk premium Cost of equity Cost of debt Effective tax rate After tax cost of debt Target capital structure Debt Equity WACC
5.0% 1.15 6.0% 11.9% 8.0% 18.0% 6.6% 20.0% 80.0% 10.8%
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LT Growth 20.61 9.8% 2.5% 22.3 3.0% 23.1 3.5% 24.1 4.0% 25.2 4.5% 26.6
10.3% 20.8 21.4 22.2 23.1 24.2
WACC 10.8% 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.4 22.2
11.3% 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.5
11.8% 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.1
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
Exhibit 6: Earnings revision summary
Rmb mn Revenue Cost of goods sold Gross profit Other operating income Operating expenses Operating income Net interest income (expenses) Share of profit of associated company Other non-operating income/expenses Income before exceptional item Exceptional item Income before tax Provision for income tax Income before minority interest Minority interest Net income Net income excl. CB mark-to-market Net income excl. CB mark-to-market & notional interest (Recurring) EPS - Reported (Rmb) EPS - Recurring & Fully diluted (Rmb) 2007E old 2007E new 43,287 42,002 (39,163) (38,039) 4,124 2,461 (4,610) 1,975 65 0 (450) 1,590 0 1,590 (306) 1,284 (17) 1,267 1,678 1,861 3,962 2,543 (4,540) 1,965 173 0 (545) 1,593 0 1,593 (321) 1,272 (39) 1,233 1,687 1,863 Chg % -3.0% -2.9% -3.9% 3.3% -1.5% -0.5% 167.0% NM 21.1% 0.2% NM 0.2% 4.8% -0.9% 136.3% -2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 2008E old 2008E new 54,319 51,012 (48,909) (45,910) 5,410 3,019 (5,839) 2,590 84 0 0 2,674 0 2,674 (428) 2,246 (19) 2,227 2,227 2,414 5,102 3,208 (5,647) 2,663 144 0 0 2,807 0 2,807 (449) 2,358 (45) 2,312 2,312 2,492 Chg % -6.1% -6.1% -5.7% 6.3% -3.3% 2.8% 71.8% NM NM 5.0% NM 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 136.3% 3.9% 3.9% 3.3% 2009E old 2009E new 66,381 61,279 (59,582) (54,998) 6,798 3,630 (7,202) 3,227 100 0 0 3,327 0 3,327 (566) 2,761 (22) 2,739 2,739 2,929 6,281 3,955 (6,944) 3,292 153 0 0 3,445 0 3,445 (586) 2,860 (52) 2,808 2,808 2,991 Chg % -7.7% -7.7% -7.6% 8.9% -3.6% 2.0% 53.3% NM NM 3.6% NM 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 136.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.1%
-2.7% 0.1%
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
A closer look at 3Q07 review: better margins offset slower topline growth
Gome reported 3Q net profit of Rmb358mn, up 66% yoy. Excluding mark-to-market P&L for the CB, net profit came in at Rmb401mn, up 113% yoy and about 5% above our forecast of Rmb382mn, helped by higher than expected margin expansion and interest income. Sales were up 63% yoy to Rmb9.2bn in 3Q07. We believe the lower than expected sales were attributed to the slowdown in store openings as well as accelerated store
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7
November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
restructuring implemented during the period. According to management, a sizable number of stores were opened during the Golden week (1ST Oct 07), leading to a shift of new stores to 4Q07 and have resulted to a historical low of 18 net openings in 3Q07, compared to a net increase of 36 and 31 stores in 1Q07 and 2Q07, respectively. Nevertheless, same store sales trend continued to improve as witnessed in 1H07, reaching 1.12% in 3Q07 from 0.59% in 1H07 and 0.16% in 1Q07. Sales productivity also continued to stabilize, with the pace of decline in sales per sqm improving further to -8%yoy in 3Q07 from -12%yoy in 1H07 and -30%yoy in 2006.
Exhibit 7: Same store sales continued to turn positive as witnessed in 1H07
Exhibit 8: Stabilizing sales productivity
0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 Sales per sqm - LHS YoY chg - RHS %
1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% 1Q06 1H06 9M06 FY06 1Q07
Same store sales
21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000
Source: Company data.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
Improving competitive dynamics and changes in contracts with suppliers are driving margin expansion further, with adjusted gross margin (gross profit + other operating income / sales) up 0.8%ppt to 15.8% in 3Q07, above our estimate of 15.4%. Despite weaker sales, SG&A to sales remained flat at 10.9% of sales in 3Q07, as synergies effect from the CP acquisition continued to materialize. Cost saving was more apparent on a per sqm basis, with SG&A per sqm decreasing by 10.8%yoy in 3Q07, following a 7%yoy drop in 1H07. After taking into account the Rmb43mn FX loss in 3Q07, operating margin of 4.9% in 3Q07 was higher than our est. of 4.6%.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
Exhibit 9: Continued margin expansion in 3Q07
18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 Operating margin Operating margin SG&A to sales Gross margin Adjusted gross margin
Adjusted gross margin
SG&A to sales
Gross margin
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
Exhibit 10: Quarterly income statement summary
Rmb mn Revenue Cost of goods sold Gross profit Other operating income Operating expenses Operating income Net interest income (expenses) Share of profit of associated company Other non-operating income/expenses Income before exceptional item Exceptional item Income before tax Provision for income tax Income before minority interest Minority interest Net income Net income excl. CB mark-to-market Net income excl. CB mark-to-market & notional interest (Recurring) 1Q07 10,088 (9,169) 918 422 (1,010) 330 38 0 (151) 217 0 217 (40) 176 (7) 169 321 337 2Q07 11,070 (10,046) 1,024 792 (1,212) 604 40 0 (299) 344 0 344 (111) 233 (7) 226 485 525 3Q07 9,162 (8,311) 851 596 (1,002) 444 73 0 (95) 423 0 423 (55) 368 (10) 358 401 451 4Q07E 11,682 (10,513) 1,170 733 (1,316) 587 22 0 (0) 609 0 609 (114) 495 (15) 479 479 550
YoY chg % Sales COGS Gross profit Other operating income SG&A Operating income Pretax income Income before MI Net income Margins % Gross margin Other opt income / Sales Total return margin SG&A / Sales Operating income Pretax income Income before MI Net margin - reported Net margin - recurring
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
80.0% 80.1% 79.4% 100.0% 79.1% 107.9% 25.4% 14.8% 75.0%
68.6% 69.7% 59.0% 186.6% 88.3% 118.2% -2.5% -25.6% -8.7%
63.1% 62.7% 66.5% 80.2% 58.3% 113.0% 74.0% 70.5% 65.8%
68.3% 68.2% 68.8% 69.4% 57.2% 103.5% 103.2% 90.3% 85.3%
9.1% 4.2% 13.3% 10.0% 3.3% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 3.3%
9.2% 7.2% 16.4% 11.0% 5.5% 3.1% 2.1% 2.0% 4.7%
9.3% 6.5% 15.8% 10.9% 4.9% 4.6% 4.0% 3.9% 4.9%
10.0% 6.3% 16.3% 11.3% 5.0% 5.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.7%
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
I, Joshua Lu, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
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Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s)
Joshua Lu: Asia Pacific Consumer and Retail, Hong Kong/China Consumer. Asia Pacific Consumer and Retail: CJ CheilJedang, CJ Home Shopping, GS Home Shopping, Hana Tour Service, Hite Brewery, Hyundai Department Store, Kangwon Land, KT&G, Lotte Shopping, Modetour Network, Nong Shim, Orion, President Chain Store, Ruentex Industries, Shinsegae, Stella International Holdings, Uni-President Enterprise. Hong Kong/China Consumer: Bosideng International Holdings, Esprit Holdings, Golden Eagle Retail Group, Gome Electrical Appliances Holding, Li & Fung, Parkson Retail Group, Suning Appliance Co..
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The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, &Goldman Sachs&) and companies covered by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research. Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (HK$15.40) Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (HK$15.40) Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (HK$15.40) Goldman Sachs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (HK$15.40) Goldman Sachs has managed or co-managed a public or Rule 144A offering in the past 12 months: Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (HK$15.40)
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Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
Price target and rating history chart(s)
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 14,000
Currency: Hong Kong Dollar
17.80 10.50 9 16.35
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000
Stock Price
May 10 B S
N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 06 2007 Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratin Reuters for daily closing prices as of 10/02/07.
Rating Price target Price target at removal MSCI Hong K pricing by FactSet
Covered by Joshua Lu, as of Feb 11, 2007 Not covered by current analyst New rating system as of 6/26/06
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Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Index Price
November 23, 2007
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
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Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (0493.HK)
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The following disclosures relate to relationships between Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities Company Limited (&Goldman Sachs Gao Hua&) and companies covered by the Investment Research Division of Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited (&Gao Hua Securities&) and referred to in this research. There are no company-specific disclosures for: Gome Electrical Appliances Holding (HK$15.40)
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